Hundreds of financial advisers are expected to exit the industry ahead of new education standards coming into force 1 January 2026, according to new analysis from Padua Wealth.
Colin Williams, the firm’s Wealth Data Manager, is predicting a “significant contraction” following a period of apparent stability in adviser numbers. However, this stability may be “the calm before the storm” as the sector approaches the qualification deadline.
Padua’s modelling forecasts that adviser numbers could fall by anywhere between 892 and more than 1,600. Its best-case scenario points to an adviser population of 14,567 in January – down from today’s total of 15,459.
Indications are that a large number of advisers will exit
Under a range of “what-if” assumptions, Williams says the net loss could “easily exceed 1,600”.
“With the 1 January 2026 education standards rapidly approaching, the data shows the financial adviser market is on the verge of a significant contraction – one that will redefine adviser capacity, business models, and consumer access to advice,” he said.
“Indications are that a large number of advisers will exit.”
Williams says his analysis of ASIC’s ‘one-off, point-in-time’ FAR data paints the “clearest picture yet of the seismic shift heading toward the financial advice profession”.
He warns that a sharp reduction in adviser numbers would place pressure on remaining advisers, resulting in predictably higher client loads, longer turnaround times for advice, and increased costs.
The firm also expects heightened competition among practices for new entrants and efforts to entice experienced advisers back into the industry, alongside a reduction in consumer access to professional advice.
Williams says advisers and licensees will increasingly need to rely on highly efficient advice-generation technology that can:
- Produce high-quality, compliant advice quickly
- Support scaling from 100 clients to more than 200 per adviser
- Eliminate administrative burden
- Reduce the cost of producing advice
- Improve turnaround times
- Deliver consistent, repeatable and defendable advice at scale
A highly efficient advice-generation platform, he said, is “no longer a nice to have”.
